Glenn Beck on the radio this morning was talking about the Hindenburg Omen and maybe even specifically quoting parts of that article that referred to percentage chances we get a crash. I briefly turned on CNBC a few times in recent days as well and the crash and depression talk is pretty thick.
It is a concern that mainstream media is talking so bearish and they may help to identify the bottom of this drop, but for now I am shrugging it off. To a certain degree we have a bull market in reverse that makes picking up on sentiment hints from the major media a bit more difficult.
We have been in a long term bear market since 2007 and now appear to be entering the next phase of this long term bear. The news from major media has been quite persistently negative or bearish about the economy for a long time now. It seems to be getting worse now. This is consistent with the idea that sentiment would get more extreme negative at the most bearish phase of a bear market. During a very long bull market sentiment reaches many levels of bullishness and the market continues to trade higher even during persistent bullish sentiment. So we may be in that situation now where persistent negative coverage of the market by mainstream media just leads to lower prices.
If this was a ‘shot gun’ type bear market where bearish price trends only last for short periods of time then I think the recent bearish talk would be much more concerning.
I suppose this bear market has become so popular at this point that a lot of people have a vested interest in seeing the market collapse so that they can add a notch on their belt to say they ‘predicted the crash’. It has me thinking that the market will not get a 1 day 10 or 20% drop to prove them right. The market can still drop 10 to 20% from here but make it seem like it is an orderly correction down and then get another big 3 to 4 month rally from the lows. That would still keep people hoping that the bottom is in.
It will be interesting to see if the market gives the mainstream what they want this time . . .
Good comment on Beck. It should be noted that there exists a very large political constituency who want to see a very weak economy prior to the election! Bad economic news fuels their objectives. Dito for a depressed stock market. This constituency has power, money and virtual control of the media.
They have the means, motive and opportunity to drive this market down!
Perhaps that is part of what the Elliot waves are reflecting!
From the bearish perspective, not helpful that Beck talked about HO. I think of Beck as an extremist kook (unfortunately with wide following).
I sort of think that most contrary thing that could happen is that market does take a sudden and steep swoon. As a bear, I have deep feelings that that will NOT happen unfortunately, but on other hand, I just, absolutely, can not fathom why I should buy long excepting perhaps dividend paying multinationals. The backdrop just seems so ugly and earnings comparisons are just going to get increasingly difficult going forward.
I have a feeling Beck follows Elliottwave as well. He is a well known gold bug and gold promoter as well.. so he seems to want to help his advertisers…
Yea Geoff, the confusion still is for me how to reconcile a possible bullish setup for the market in the context of all this bearish news and fundamentals. Maybe the one thing we are forgetting is the FED. Whether we like it or not they do have an extraordinary amount of power to sway the markets in a certain direction. Wall street does respond to them when the moment is right.
There is a 3 day meeting starting tomorrow and I can only wonder what the FED might do or say. Another trillion dollars of quantitive easing? Or even a hint at half that might send this market higher regardless how bad the fundamentals are. I could be wrong, but I have a strange feeling they are about to put forth some kind of announcement that wall street will get all excited about again. Just a guess and speculation…
Money, namely his own personal fortune, is all that Beck is about. And I do mean ALL.
Several individuals are becoming very wealthy by their manipulation of those who identify as the Tea Party. You can figure out who the others are, in addition to Beck.
Beck predicts disaster, directs his followers to buy gold, which is sold by his sponsors. What else do you need to know?
Yes and for these reasons he may sort of be considered the ‘poster child’ for the bearish sentiment on a mainstream basis. He talks on many themes but also talks a lot of economy and the fed just like the gold bugs do. For this reason I consider his crash talk especially significant and quite contrarian, more so than many others in the financial realm. Thanks for your comment.
Beck needs nobody’s support– least of all mine. But to suggest that his interests are anywhere near those of the mainstream media is patently silly. anyone with such a thought– or who thinks Beck is ‘just about money’ (sic), is thinking what he wants to think, rather than taking the time to understand the deep well of resentment toward current liberal policy coming from DC.
Also odd to imply criticism of someone for wanting to make a buck– on a trading site! I didn’t realize we were all here for HUMANITARIAN reasons! Thanks, Kugel, for setting me straight. Money is BAD! BAD money!!