A Pile of Egg on My Face?

So far 1/2 hour into the close today it seems as though I might have a huge pile of egg on my face given my ‘extra strength’ bearishness yesterday and call that we have hit the final top.

It amazes me how they were able to reverse the market from yesterday’s key reversal day on heavy volume.  Today we did almost the complete opposite of yesterday and once again it shows who is running the show here.  The bulls are.

If yesterdays high was the final top then today’s tape action just would not be happening, but it is.  It is telling me something is really wrong with my analysis at this point.

I am going to have to once again revert back to my original strategy of simply waiting for a much closer weekly MACD cross.  Today’s action still keeps the weekly MACD in the bullish zone and does not turn the bias in favor of bears yet.  The bears have one more day tomorrow to get some real damage done and close the weekly price bar at the bottom of the range but at least based on today’s action it seems they will not be able to get it done tomorrow.  But we will just have to wait and see.

The weekly MACD is a slow moving beast and it takes a lot of price action to turn the tide and momentum in the other direction.  So these daily swing moves and reversals could go on for maybe another 3 weeks before we get enough price action that ‘certifies’ a more significant top.

Another possibility is that we just move sideways for the next 5 to 10 trading days.  But again, until that weekly MACD gets more serious about an imminent crossover I am once again going to just have to cool off here and let the bulls play a while.

Posted in Index Trading, Market Timing, SP500
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