I am switching back to the BOT Long signal at 1295. The bulls are running the show here still. The bears FAILED to break under the mid March 2011 high volume swing low and they had plenty of chances.
So this only means one thing.. bullish price action ahead and possibly very bullish and longer term price action. But I do not want to get too far ahead of myself. I refer you to the quarterly sp500 price chart I made a day or two ago which shows the trading dynamic on the 10 year massive swing trading range.
The quarterly structure shows that we could bust up and through a 10 year trading channel in the second half of 2011! I don’t care what anyone says about GREECE or the rest of Euroland !! If the quarterly price structure remains above the blue dotted bullish up trend line in force since 2009 then the market will evolve into a massive UPSIDE bullish 10 year channel breakout. Period.
And if that is to occur, then BestOnlineTrades will remain on a BOT long signal for the duration and beyond…
Do not be afraid to be bullish if the tape tells you do so! The ‘news’ is many times different than what the tape action is telling you!
I concur with your conclusion. I went long last week!
Here was my analysis: From a technical or fundamental perspective a case could be made for either the bull or the bear side!
BUT considering the politics of the question the stronger case should be made for the bulls.
The Democrats control the Senate and the Presidency. Remember Kissinger made a speech to the Wall Street Barons a few months ago. He said and I paraphrase. “Why are you complaining about Obama. He is the best friend you ever had. I should know since he is my protegee.”
Factoring in the election of 2012, it is obvious that the Democrats are going to focus on economics and the economy. If it doesn’t improve substantially they will lose both the Senate and the Presidency. Simply put they will not allow such to happen.
That means that both the administration and the Fed will do everything possible to help the economy. And they have the power and practically all the money in the World.
Ergo: The Bulls have it!
Yes good points… the presidential cycle definitely is playing an important role here as well… the current administration must go ‘all in’ in my opinion during the next year into the election to get another 4 year term. They probably have a few kitchen sinks left to throw at the market. The crude oil kitchen sink was just the appetizer in my opinion.
So all the incentive is there up until the election… but then assuming the mission is accomplished and another 4 year term is won.. then it turns into a lame duck presidency and the markets can collapse after that again… seems like a good game plan going forward…
In the mean time ride the mega inflationary bull…
Congratulations, this blog has done it again. June 2011 has been a rousing disaster for the blog – – by my count a total 92 S & P points lost since June 9:
June 9 Bot Long at 1294 but on June 10 Bot Short at 1273 (loss 21 S & P pts), at June 13th Bot Long at 1287 (losing another 14 S & P pts), at June 15th Bot Short at 1273 (losing another 14 SP pts) at June 17th Bot Long at 1276 (losing 3 S & P pts) at June 23 Bot Short at 1266 (losing another 10 S & P pts) and finally today June 28th Bot Long at 1296 (losing another 30 S & P pts). A total loss within 20 days of an astounding 92 S & P points.
From this point, assuming that the blog has no further trade swings, the market will have to rise to S&P 1388 just to break even with the losses in the past 20 days!
Holy Cow – – what a record! What is the name of this blog site again? “BestonLineTrade”. Really? Prove it. Please.
Yes indeed holy cow… an outstanding record when you consider BestOnlineTrades has been correct on this entire bull run since March of 2009 while other’s have been constantly trying to pick tops.
The few times I have tried to pick tops I have also been successful with my signals.
But then once the volatility came it there were many whipsaw signals.
The bottom line is that BestOnlineTrades gives great precise signals as a whole. There is no perfection here, but when you boil it all down, the signals and observations I have made have been outstanding.
BestOnlineTrades called the May 6, 2010 flash crash just before it began:
http://www.bestonlinetrades.com/20100502/a-fearless-forecast-for-the-sp500-for-may-2010/
BestOnlineTrades called one of the greatest lows in the market in over 100 years of trading prices:
http://www.bestonlinetrades.com/20100825/spdr-sp-500-etf-spy-fails-to-test-swing-lows-on-increased-volume/
Then recently BestOnlineTrades indicates that biotech sector is booming and will be the new leaders when we come out of this correction which is exactly happening right now with stocks such as RPRX, EXAS, IRWD, and IBB which were recently mentioned…
So all things considered, when it comes to the big swing points, BestOnlineTrades identifies them in timely fashion…
Short term timing in this market is very difficult, especially since the algorithm boys are in control in the short term. They move millions of shares in a nano-second, heavily influencing short term trades.
So Tom, by sharing his short term opinions will end up with some bad calls.
On the other hand, his long term call of the bulls has been right on.
Especially informative is his recent observation regarding the quarter periodic chart!
In hind sight sometimes telling people what is on your mind at any particular moment can be quite embarrassing. But still quite interesting.
Geoff must be enjoying BOT since he seems to be an avid reader.
Still, his constant bearishness has not been very rewarding economically.
As long as I have been watching BOT he has been bearish, I wonder how much money he has lost?
Still, I enjoy the banter and hope he will keep it up.
In this kind of market we need to keep our sense of humor.
Comment by Geoff:
92 poiints– and if the investor had that big a loss in, say, 6 big S & P contracts– sounds like a quick erasue of 100 grand! The maxim that the market can remain irrational much longer than the investor remains insolvent applies. Once again, Jesse Livermore’s insight that sitting tight, doing nothing made him the most money. Of course he didn’t follow his sage advice and when he went broke for the fourth time blew his brains out in the coat check room of the Sherry Netherland Hotel, near the current Plaza hotel.
Ok, I will go out on a limb and predict that the Greek austerity plan will not pass causing the Euro, equities and commodities to drop
I think Greece and several other nations will leave the European Union with the original 10 core nations remaining.
I base this on Biblical prophecies
Technically I see signs it could still go either way, although the momentum is to the upside presently.
Even if the plan does pass, we may still see a fall in the market either because the news is baked into the price, and or chaos breaks out in Greece causing a financial meltdown there.
One more technical note.
The Vectorvest Composite of over 8000 stocks had broken down from a Head and Shoulders on the daily chart 2 weeks ago. We came very close to coming back up and kissing the underside of the neckline today.
I say odds favor a big down day tomorrow
JR
your comment about this bloggers “long term” call being good might be valid IF (1) this site was intended as a long term investment blog – which it is not, hence the title bestonlinetrade, and most importantly (2) if the blogger had not made intervening calls of BOT short between his long predictions.
it is preposterous to pick and choose which “calls” you want to take credit for without taking “credit” for the intervening calls which negated the original call.
Good “trading” all – – or in the case of this blogger – – is it trader or investor?
Ed.
I will take the devils advocate on this one. Greece will pass and move happily along. Why this is such news again adn “tanking” the markets is beyond me. We have known this for a year or more now. This isnt new news!!!! This is just news to make the market move the way it needs to in the short term.
For those naysayers, BOT long and short changes on an almost daily basis is what makes the market move sideways. That is a tough call!!! As in today. Ed called for down today and I thought same yet I woke to green futures, although that could change shortly and/or mean nothing at market open. So sometimes the best thing to do is sit out this madness.