It is time to switch back to a BOT Long Signal right now at 1315 on the sp500. This market is too weak on the downside. The Dollar keeps dropping with no bottom in sight and the equity markets are feeding off of it like a kid on a sugar kick. This has been going on so long that I would be a fool to say it will stop now because of my ‘theories’.
Back to BOT long now and likely new 52 week highs ahead on the sp500 in the weeks ahead. Amazing.
Trying to get the market to go down is like pushing on a string.
Better to focus on longs still and just run with the tape.
I bailed out of VG a few days ago based on my ‘fear’ of a broad market decline. Now VG is trading at 4.82 and change and will likely blast higher…
Better to keep running with the bulls for now…
Tom,
Remember your Inverse HS pattern in SPX from couple weeks ago seems like it played out almost perfect we seem to complete the right shoulder today. Lately you have been too bearish. It would be nice to see your thoughts stocks that are poised to run if spx rallies to new highs.
A very very very very brief “history” of this blog:
Tues April 12th (2 days ago) “BOT Short Signal at 1316 on SP 500” the blog actually said bot short at 1315.20
Wed April 13th “Here is Possible Crash Scenario for the SP500”
Thur April 14 (today) “Back to BOT Long Signal at 1315”
meanwhile, the SP500 closed today at 1314.52! i am glad this blog is now on long side. i continue on short side. good luck. in a treacherous market like this, worry much more when we are on the same side.
The quick switching of calls is related to the reluctance of the market to deliver on the short side.
I rather switch stance quickly instead of waiting for the market to coast up to new 52 week highs and THEN switch to a long signal.
I was able to catch the first correction down in early March.. and did not really catch this one as there was really not much meat to be had on the downside… now see the market long again.
Before that a general long bias and let market trend long.
I believe this approach is better instead of fighting the market from the 2009 or 2010 lows all the way up as some other pros have such as Larry Pesavento… they have continued to be wrong and wrong time and time again and keep fighting the market.
The market is choppy, and can chop you up pretty good. I am now only doing 2-5 day swings, nothing longer term. I place my orders with controlled brackets on both sides of the trade. If a stock does not perform, it is gone. I am trading based on assumption that I don’t know the trend, .. or there is no trend right now. You can still trade off of support/resistance lines, and looking for oversold stocks using stoc, macd, and simply counting days down.
Vonage looks nice, still a buy at this point as it is coming off of a base, but has not made the big move yet (which would then be too late).
Ideally one wants to get into such stocks before they come out of the base, and they are getting squeezed just below the flat top. I am currently into WYNN, and expecting it to do a Vonage soon 🙂 LVS should also do a Vonage, but it has more resistance overhead.
Nice summary steve you are exactly right… have not looked at LVS in a while, but I think you are right..
I am getting something like 80% success rate when I buy below the flat top ascending triangle (long term or intraday). That is my #1 trading set up now (but have to find it manually). LVS is a a good example. See where it was yesterday and where it is today.
Market: Again, I think we are in the “weird zone” of the market. There is no trend at this point that I can see. So I resolve to buy low and sell high with tight stops, vs. momentum plays. So channel trading is in (for me) and momentum plays are out.
ascending triangles sound great.. I love them, but like you find them hard to find, they seem so rare… but I agree with you can be very reliable.. maybe one of the most reliable patterns I have seen