Back to BOT Long Signal Maybe for a Long While

The bearishness in the market today was completely rejected.  I am switching to BOT long signal on sp500 at the open tomorrow.  I have re evaluated the price charts and am coming to the conclusion that the mini bear may be over for now.

I am starting to consider the possibility that the market may get into the 1300 to 1350 range by the end of the year, maybe higher.  This is just a little bit of early speculation on my part. I still have to evaluate the charts going forward.  I am unclear whether we can get so high before the end of the year.

I am still open to the possibility that the sp500 trades higher for a few weeks but then eventually resolves down again into a longer bear market, but this is starting to become unpopular with me now.

I think all the current bearishness is overdone.

The US markets have help up much better than European indices and now they are initiating reversals.  We should have plunged or crashed by now this late in September. 

I realize a lot are looking for ‘Target of 1000 on sp500’, or ‘ retest of the March 2009 lows’.  I was thinking the same myself not too long ago.

Now I am more sanguine. 

There are some longer term chart structures on the sp500 and the QQQ which show a market that still has bullish possibilities.  These longer term charts are what encouraged me to start BOT long signals again a few weeks ago.

Now I am looking at them again and they paint a picture of a market that is once again simply correcting a previously overbought condition, but not necessarily entering a mega bear long term leg down.  I am not completely throwing out the mega bear scenario out, but I may do so pretty soon depending on the next few weeks of price action.

Flexibility is key.  If I am right then we will see plenty of confirming price action as we transition into the new quarter and month that starts in October.

The next 4 trading days could go a long long way towards strengthening a extended bullish case (one reason is that it could create a quarterly doji candlestick).

Anyway, I will have some long term charts posted by tomorrow sometime to explain this renewed bullish case.

Posted in BOT Long Signal

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