Back to BOT Long Signal this AM on the Open

I have to switch back to a BOT long signal on the open this morning.  I hope this is not yet another whipsaw signal.  But I have to trust the volume analysis I did yesterday on the QQQ.  Either volume and price analysis works or it does not. I have to trust the volume analysis, although it feels scary.

So BOT long at 1276 on the sp500 to see how this bullish spring works. When the volume speaks. I listen.

A close under 1258 today will negate this long signal and likely lead to a huge market drop next week.  So lets see how it all shakes out and whether this is yet another whipsaw signal. Smile

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10 comments on “Back to BOT Long Signal this AM on the Open
  1. ed says:

    We may get a bounce here but I think only to work off an oversold condition before we head back down

  2. Max says:

    Hey Tom,

    You seem to be changing sides more often than I brush my teeth 🙂
    Come on, it’s a quadruple witching day, it’s normal to see counter-trend moves on days like these.

  3. Tom says:

    Indeed.. maybe I have TDD (Trading Deficit Disorder) 🙂

    I know what you mean guys, but the volume reversal spring on the QQQ is what got me thinking the long side will work again from here for a couple of weeks…

    It will be interesting to see if the volume reversal signal fails, but I have to believe it for now..

    The gold price looks like it wants to rocket higher again.. whether it can drag paper equities up with it again remains to be seen..

    US Dollar breaks down again, but can it follow through more to the downside again next week??

    So many questions and possibilities…

    RTH (retail holders ETF ) looks like it wants to bust higher big time next week.. BBH biotech holders may do the same..

    Lets see if the Eurozone can save the world next week and pump the market higher once again…

    or am I wrong…. and whipsaw again ….. 🙂

  4. ed says:

    I think you put way too much faith in all these geeky technical indicators In these days we need to pay more attention to fundamentals to give us a general direction of the various markets to avoid being whipsawed so much

  5. geoff says:

    agree with ed. and as i have indicated in many of my comments, your obsession with astrology, Armstrong, and Mayan end cycle, etcetera does your blog absolutely no service. NONE. 13th / 14th June has come and gone – – “ok”, so what the heck do you conclude – – after all it was a once in 8.6 year event – forecast down to the day – – so what did it mean?

  6. Tom Tom says:

    I do not see how paying more attention to fundamentals is going to make it any easier… If we took that stance that all the Greece problems and European problems were major items of concern and should cause us to expect a major sell off.. that logic did not seem to work for the last year or more as the market has moved higher each time and goes higher and higher with each new crisis.

    On the other hand what the Fed does is probably important and market moving but what have they said or done so far to indicate they are ready to slam on the brakes ?

    It would seem as though all the kings horses and all the kings men will throw whatever they possibly can at the market up into the next election.. but then after that is when finally maybe we see a real collapse.

    I don’t completely ignore the fundamentals.. but I would rather only give it a 10 to 20% weighting..

    The Marty Cycle of June 13, 2011 has been a bit confusing. On the longer term time frames of monthly I could make the argument that we have hit now a major major top and will decline back down into this massive decade long channel.

    Marty himself says that the turn date is inconclusive and that it may just be the equivalent of the 1985 turn date which means the market could go much higher from here.

    http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/armstrongeconomics-june-13-14-turning-point-061411.pdf

    But on the daily basis I can see we moved down into the turn date and that could suggest that we turn higher strongly from here.

    So I am somewhat confused on the conclusion of the Marty Turn date.

    I thought for a while that maybe the dollar would react to the cycle date and get some really solid ground for a blast higher for a long time that would push the stock market down..

    but now I am not even sure of that.. the dollar may break down again and rocket gold and the market higher again..

    The volume analysis of a few days ago says the market is exhausted to the downside and up is the next course of action….

    problem is, technical indicators are not perfect and volume springs are not perfect either… we will just have to wait and see this up coming week of the market breaks support badly and decisively or can manage to react off of the volume reversal spring..

    Market timing is an art, not a science… I do refer to important cycle dates from time to time if they appear to be relevant within the overall context of market action…

    I am not obsessed with astrology, but I do have respect for its uncanny ability to call occasional important turn points… not unlike the new or full moon which occasionally does the same.

    In fact Royal Bank of Scotland did a research report on buying and selling the new or full moons and market returns over a 100 year period.. If you did your buying and selling relative to the moon cycle your profits would have been dramatically improved.

    http://www.markettiming.nl/img/image/file/RBS_MoonTrading13Jun10.pdf

    As my father sometimes says.. “these guys are no dummies”…

    That is the Royal Bank of Scotland coming to those research conclusions, not some obscure market timer like Larry P.

    Most hedge funds have a sitting astrologer on their trading desks as well.. this is common knowledge.

    Not using astrology is a simple choice, but if ignored can lead to disadvantages relative to the very large mutual fund and hedge fund players in the market who control the big moves of the tape.

  7. geoff says:

    Most hedge funds have a sitting astrologer on their trading desks as well.. this is common knowledge.

    REALLY? ? ? ? ? can you provide any link that supports this common knowledge. i read the WSJ every day, and Barron’s every wkend – – – for decades (and assuming i am in USA) – – and i have NEVER heard such “common knowledge” reported.

  8. ed says:

    Today we are looking at a Falling three methods bearish candle stick pattern on the daily SPX. Big down day tomorrow…….

  9. geoff says:

    ed

    i am sort of surprised at your suggestion. according to an online source,

    Number of Middle Candles – In a picture perfect formation the middle candles number three. But realistically the pattern may have two, four or even five candles. Individually each middle candle may be a star or doji, red or blue.

    with the FED mtg Tues and Wed, i would guess that any reaction would wait until Wednesday, and if it waited that long than probably to Thurs to see the unemployment data – – – but possibly a strong reaction from Greek Parliament results tomorrow will crater the Euro?

    i admit that today seemed like a very sleepy day – – zerohedge says that it was slowest trading day of year

    i hope you are right, even if it does not happen until Thurs or Friday. it seems to me that this 7 wk decline has been way way way way too orderly and gentle.

  10. Tom says:

    That is a good observation Ed.. I can see the pattern. Hats off to you if the market follows your expectation.

    At this time I am still expecting higher but I have to admit I am getting many mixed signals that cancel each other out.

    Will be interesting to see if your prediction comes true tomorrow…

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