Back to BOT Short Signal an exercise in whipsaw

Back to BOT short signal at 1273.  Bounce theory not working.. Better to stay the course when the course set out on the weekly.  Today’s action tells me that we are no building steam to bust through 1250.

My theory was that volume coming down in to mid March 2011 high volume swing was too weak…  So now with the current weak bounce we can only assume that the market wants to build cause to bust through it..

Staying with the BOT short signal now for quite a longer while…

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7 comments on “Back to BOT Short Signal an exercise in whipsaw
  1. geoff says:

    Your calls are simply incredible. Your site needs to be renamed. Seriously!

    On 9th June, you BOT Long at 1294. The market promptly declined ant the next day you BOT Short at 1273 – – you lost 21 SP pts. On 13th June you BOT Long again at 1283 – – you lost an additional 10 SP pts. And today, 15th June, you reverse again to BOT Short at 1273. you lost another 10 SP pts – – – in total over only 5 trading days, this blog has lost a whopping 42 SP points! I give you a lot of credit for being honest and transparent, but it sure is not making you or anyone who reads and follows this blog any money. . . . . . unless they use this blog as an almost perfect contrary indicator.

    Now that you are short again, (and on my side of the market), i will have to be observant.

  2. Tom Tom says:

    Nice try Geoff. You are trying to smear my recent signals which was merely an attempt at seeing if there was a bottom in the market.. a test if you will… what you are doing is sort of what movie makers do when they take a very short quote from a movie review to make their movie look bad or good.. but they leave out the rest of the phrase which is the real truth.

    But the bottom line is that BestOnlineTrades was EARLY in picking this top and was correct way up on top before there was blood on the streets. That is FACT. You can read it here yourself:

    http://www.bestonlinetrades.com/20110523/sp500-confirmed-weekly-sell-signal-today/

    Look at the chart in the above link! Note that big red arrow that notes where the BOT short signal was on May 11 !

    Gee Geoff what a horrible contrarian signal that was! That is just horrible timing on my part issuing a BOT short signal way back on May 11, 2011 way before anyone was breathing ANY fear or talking about Greece.

    And then look at that second big red arrow that points right at 1250… Hmmmm, the low today was 1263… only 13 points from 1250… WOW… seems like me being 13 points off the mark is not accurate enough… shame on me…

    http://www.bestonlinetrades.com/20110511/trying-the-bot-short-signal-on-the-sp500-now-at-1338/

    I made a great great call and then switched to neutral on 5/31/2011 , the mega head fake day…

    Next time before you start talking trash, get your facts straight and do not forget that context is everything in this biz.

  3. geoff says:

    trash talk / fact straight? just reviewing the calls of the last 5 or 6 trading days. 40 SP pts lost in those few days. you can not pick and choose signals you wish to take credit for. what happened to Cheetah? what happened to URRE?

    you definitely seem very advanced at tech/blog technology, so i would be very fine if you somehow “blocked” my comments. this seems a very sophisticated blog site, so hopefully you can do this.

  4. Max says:

    The only thing I get from Tom’s latest calls is that technicals have come to be basically irrelevant in the market we’re in.

  5. Danile says:

    Hi Tom

    I just want to comment a bit. You did made these great calls, however, the thing is that you are not confident about the calls you made. If you stick with the call you made on May 11 until today, you would have been one of the greatest on TA. Unfortunately, you switched back and form, making people who wanted to follow you very confused, including me.

    Any way, I appreciate your work, and understand it’s extremely hard to predict anything for the stock market.

  6. ed says:

    I really sympathize with TOM. I don’t think anyone has the right to “beat up” another trader in this market. I surmised long ago that the market would someday just be computers trading against computers. That has now become the rule

    We humans have become the exception. Trying to trade using traditional technical analysis has become diluted by the fact that it is based on human behavior, not computers

    Some times I feel I would have been done better just flipping a coin

  7. Tom Tom says:

    Danile,

    Yes you are correct… I do admit that one of my biggest problems is staying put with a forecast once I have made it and just let it play out come hell or high water…

    Maybe I should go to trading rehab for a while until I figure out how to stop that habit because it is not very helpful..

    I suppose it comes from my attempt to be too precise with the market trying to catch every little turn.. but the sp500 does not typically move like that.. it moves very slow and cumbersome most of the time..

    ed, yes the random nature of stocks and indices cannot be denied regardless how much we try to frame it with TA. One thing I have always thought of doing but have never actually done is to impose a 3 day waiting period before entering a stock..

    So lets say I am all excited and pumped up about such and such stock that has the greatest setup in the world.. instead of buying it that day as I normally would.. just sit tight for 3 days and see if my initial conclusion starts to become correct.. that way it allows me to cool down a bit and gain my senses and actually see if the stock wants to prove itself without actually being in it.

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