Blog Archives

Is the Next Major Top in Gold and the SP500 Really Going to Be This Simple ?



A lot of market analysis sometimes boils down to some very simple analysis.  But we humans try to make market analysis as sophisticated and complex as possible to make ourselves look smart and feel important.

But could it be that the next major trend change or at least consolidation and retracement be due to the two simple charts above? 

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Posted in Forex Trading, Index Trading, US Dollar Index

Another 5 to 7% Drop for the Dollar or 5 to 7% Rise for the Euro

There was a great article by Kathy Lien over at where she makes the forecast and argument that the US dollar could drop another 5 to 7% and that the Euro could conversely rise another 5 to 7%.

The reason this article is important is because the almost perpetual and persistent advance in the SP500 has derived a lot of it’s energy from a slow and gradual falling dollar. 

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Posted in Forex Trading, Index Trading, Market Timing, SP500, US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index Drifting Down to Some Key Support Levels


The US Dollar Index keeps drifting downward as if it is on some sort of mission.  Clearly this has helped the broad market keep going UP as well as gold.  The popular story line on the US Dollar Index right now is that sentiment wise there are too many bears and hardly any bulls. 

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Posted in Forex Trading, Market Timing, Technical Analysis, US Dollar Index

UUP US Dollar ETF the Clue for the Next Correction?


I think we have a good clue here in the form of the UUP ETF (US Dollar ETF) that may provide good hints as to when the first more involved market correction will begin (maybe a 6 month correction?).

The UUP is rapidly approaching the 22 level. 

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Posted in ETFS, Forex Trading

Monthly US Dollar Chart Indicating it May Break Down Severely in September


I have some new information on the US Dollar index and wanted to bring it to your attention.  My obsession with the US Dollar Index continues… But why? Why am I so obsessed with the US Dollar Index.  I am because it is either going to help gold do a MEGA breakout or it could potentially hinder any breakout in gold or even cause a break down.

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Posted in Forex Trading, Gold Market, Long Term Charts, Market Timing, US Dollar Index

Keep an eye on The US Dollar Bounce


The US dollar has an upward bounce going today.  The chart above does not show today’s price move but it is near 79 right now.  It is no surprise that gold is taking a bit of a hit today. So now what?

First, before I even get into the meat of what I want to say I should tell you that there is always a bull side and a bear side to every trade,

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Posted in Forex Trading, US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index Bounces off of Support Creating Bullish Divergence


The US Dollar Index has elected to bounce off of support creating a short term double bottom.  The bounce has also created a bullish divergence which is now playing out and should allow the US Dollar to move higher shorter term.

In a previous post I was talking about how the US Dollar index was at crucial long term support and that it really needed to hold the 79 level. 

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Posted in Forex Trading, Market Timing, Online Trading, US Dollar Index

THE GBP USD still has a solid uptrend


The GBP USD has a nice looking uptrend as seen from the chart at left.  This is the weekly price chart.

I think we could see some more significant fireworks to the upside with a valid break of 1.6717.  If you have been reading some of my previous posts then you will know that my current stance on the US Dollar Index is quite bearish,

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Posted in Forex Trading

US Dollar Index Barely Holding Crucial Support


The US dollar index is barely holding onto crucial support at the 79 level.  This is a MAJOR story in my opinion and could have dramatic implications for several markets including forex, the broad market and gold.

The clear story with the US dollar in 2008 has been the MEGA bounce that it was able to achieve with the flight to safety trade and liquidation trade that was occurring all through 2008. 

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Posted in Forex Trading, Market Timing, US Dollar Index