For the Record Pulling the Plug on the Crash and Bear Scenario

The futures are up significantly tonight Sunday and while it is still early before the trading week begins I am going to have to pull the plug on any crash or overly bearish scenario at this point.

At this point in time it is just the right thing to do given how stuck we are in the middle of a large trading range.

This is not to say that I am bullish the market now. I am neutral and simply wait and see mode.  I have a lot of confused thoughts on some larger chart patterns and structures and they put enough doubt in my mind that there is no clarity for me for now.  I saw some charts from Tim Ord this weekend that have me thinking this bounce could last for quite some time.  The chart I am referring to is the Rydex Cash flow Ratio and you can find it at http://www.decisionpoint.com It is basically saying that we could rally for 1 to 3 months from here.  In addition the huge oversold ARMS reading we had a few weeks back could in hindsight be very significant.

Either way this is likely to be a wild week in both directions.  I cannot rule out a huge surge upwards into mid week, only to see all the gains retraced and then have the week turn into a badly losing week.  That is certainly possible given the wild volatile trading range we are in and also the heavy hitting astro aspects that kick in this week.  To be honest the bears really need a scenario exactly like that to stay alive here.  They need this market to go higher into mid week and then turn around twice as hard and close the week hard down.

There is still the 50 and 200 day moving average cross to deal with.  That is getting closer to a bearish cross.  It does not mean that prices cannot rise anymore, they can, but it does tend to develop a bearish momentum trend.

The whole world of technicians is looking for 1150 on the Sp500 which is about 3 and 1/4% higher from where we closed Friday.  Some are even talking 1180 or 1200 again which would be an enormous retracement.

AAPL looks like it wants to make new all time highs and there is an Airline Index that just hit new 52 week highs…

So until further notice… my crash talk and excessive bear talk has at least for now come to an official end…

There was a very specific indicator I have been watching that I was waiting  to give a signal to activate an 87 style scenario.  The way the indicator is setup now, it implies that the market could rally 1 to 4 days before it activates.  When and if it activates I will give it a casual mention on here and then see if it actually turns into something.

Time to start hunting for some Best Online Trades again…

Posted in Index Trading, Market Timing, Online Trading, SP500
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