If SP500 Fails at 1294 then Bear Trend May Resume

If the sp500 cannot manage to bust up and through 1294 then I may have to concluded that this market is simply too weak to get another upwards run going.  Then it would also put the market at risk of breaking down through key support at 1257.  If that happens then the mini bear will likely be more than just a mini bear.

But for now I will give it a few more chances.

Perhaps the next two trading days will help tell the tale.

An alternative theory is that the market simply turns into dead money from here for most of July and August just playing games with the upside and the downside.  July and August are not typically known for being blockbuster months in either direction.

There will probably be some follow through to the downside tomorrow, but we will have to see if the sp500 can find support at 1281.  If not holding 1281 then it could start to be a problem again for the market and lead to more serious downside..

It is possible the market is just building a rising wedge formation and wants to break down out of it eventually.

Bottom line is that if the sp500 is too weak to break up and through 1294 and stay above there, then we must assume there is still enough bearishness to take the market lower.

Staying BOT long for now, but if decisive close under 1281, then may have to switch sides again… 1294  and 1281 seem to be the ‘deciders’ for now..

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