It has been a Frustrating Up Down Market

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This has been a very frustrating market period.  August was down.  And now here we are in Mid September and the market is not falling apart, just bouncing.

I guess markets are supposed to frustrate people, that is just what they do.  Sideways trading ranges have a tendency to make the sentiment very bearish.  But for now it seems up will be the next direction.

The SMH appears to be leading the way up.. then AAPL and AMZN and the QQQ not far behind.

I guess Greece and all of Europe going BK is not going to stop people from buying an Iphone 5.

qqq20110913

A huge move is coming and it appears that it will be up.

QQQ has been making higher lows but not dramatic higher highs.

sp500 and many other indices look much weaker of course, so we will have to see if the QQQ can manage to pull the rest of them up enough.

The scary thing about the QQQ chart from a bearish bias perspective is that it could measure back up to the old 52 week highs.  Crazy markets, crazy swings… this is the environment now…

Comments 5

  1. steve wrote:

    SMH hitting against 50 MA resistance, in a downtrending market, I would only play it from the short side (not tomorrow, perhaps, but waiting to pounce).

    The bull argument is high vol. on SMH today, but still, I will wait to short.

    Posted 14 Sep 2011 at 9:18 pm
  2. Tom wrote:

    has anyone seen any technical analysis bullish arguments that could send the sp500 back up to 52 week new highs or beyond ?

    have not been able to find any.

    I just want to be open minded. The monthly MACD is in a bearish crossover stance, however I have seen monthly MACD crossovers turn into failed long term bearish signals…

    My point is, can a mega bullish case still be made as we sit right before the traditionally strong 4th quarter..

    Posted 14 Sep 2011 at 9:37 pm
  3. KT wrote:

    I know I saw a story on MSNBC where one analyst says 10-15 percent rise is possible, but when I went to look for it, this is what greeted me:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44527322

    Posted 14 Sep 2011 at 10:48 pm
  4. Tom wrote:

    All I can say is that everyone is talking about recession now. CNBC is very bearish. And even they are talking about a bear flag.

    Consumer sentiment is horrible.

    I am just not convinced that we are going into a full blown recession now.

    Perhaps we are in for a dreaded sideways market for YEARS. With sloppy and choppy price action.

    October earnings are going to be extremely important and either light a fire under stocks or send the them plunging.

    I will likely do a posting on possible bullish scenarios based on technical analysis only and see what I can come up with.

    There is always a bull case and a bear case even if a bull case only has a 5% chance of happening.

    Posted 14 Sep 2011 at 10:55 pm
  5. ed wrote:

    Bullish technical arguments?

    Tom are you forgetting about the Inverse Head and Shoulders on the QQQ monthly chart?

    Posted 15 Sep 2011 at 1:45 am

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