It probably would have been a better idea for me to switch to neutral this morning instead of long. Neutral makes a lot more sense given today’s close. It was a quick decision before I had much time to review my charts enough and it was not a decision based on the close today. Lesson learned. I need to wait until the CLOSE of market before giving any new firm opinions. Intraday forecasts or calls are really only relevant for intraday day trading. The daily charts are won or lost based on the days close.
The shooting stars today look quite bearish based on the closing action. But we need confirmation of them with a gap down and or close below today’s low.
I have no problem with these excessive potential whipsaws way up here in the clouds. I have to be open to the possibility that new signals can be achieve in only a few days time.
I will switch to short again if we can get a gap down tomorrow under 1184 and a close under 1184. Maybe there is a lotto ticket lurking inside this market that will somehow get a huge blow to the downside by end of week. It seems very unlikely but I am willing to be open minded.
I still think we need a huge decline this week in order to keep the much more serious bearish scenarios intact. I say this because of the way the monthly charts look. On the NDX and a few other indices the monthly chart is showing a clear massive upside breakout of down trend resistance. Only a very nasty sell off during the next 4 trading days will create enough doubt in those monthly charts and remove the MACD monthly histogram buy signals.