New Opinions New Markets

I think I have to change my opinion from what I said in my previous post.  In the previous post I was basically saying that we have the potential to bounce to 1250 in the sp500.  I am not so sure any more.

Bear market rules apply here.  And in bear markets bounces tend to be lackluster and follow through lame.

It could be quite possible that we are building a descending triangle in the current 2 months time frame and will bust down again.  Again, the presumption I think has to be that the tape will bias to the downside, no matter how many rallies we tend to get.  It will likely be messy and confusing.

I will use the VIX analysis as my guide.  If VIX holds ground and maintains a solid uptrend structure then I will be looking for when it gets into a positive stance to BUST out topside 48.20 which will be the clue that market will plunge.

Surprises should be on the downside.  Do not trust this market.

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