I am reposting the XAU chart from a previous update. A test of 85 now seems all but a certainty. And we do have a degree of symmetry from 1997.

As I had also mentioned in the previous update, jumping the 'creek' which in this case is the neckline of the large reverse head and shoulders pattern at 85 is classic wyckoff trading action. The XAU was supposed to show a 'sign of strength' to confirm the breakout above this key resistance level of 85 and to create long term support at neckline level. That was accomplished. It is also classic wyckoff to do a retest of this neckline once it is broken to the upside. One wants to see a neckline retest that shows good demand, not unlike the intra-month retest that happened in 1997. So the key for the XAU market is how we bounce off of this level. Note also that the current spike down swing in the XAU market could be a one month 'head' of a reverse head and shoulders pattern. If so, it would suggest a sharp upward reaction by end of April to create the head.

This is a nervous time for sure. It is the ultimate test for the XAU market here. The XAU which in the past has led the gold market needs to take a leadership role here to show it wants to find a base and support at the neckline of 6 years. The length of this neckline gives the support more validity. It is not to be taken for granted however.

Could the XAU run into cycle lows near the end of this month? creating a reverse head and shoulders pattern? Time will tell.. at the crucial hour of decision..