Stock Market Top Scenario is Alive Again

I think yesterday, March 20th I became a bit too quick to raise the white flag. Given today’s sharp reversal and the break down in the BBH biotech index, the re establishment of downtrend in the Mclellan oscillator and moving averages and the nature of the high volume reversal, I have to go back now to my original short thesis ( seen here ).

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Index Analysis Paralysis

The tape action in the SP500 today is definitely NOT confirming the bearish thesis forecast over my previous two postings. The tape action today basically did a ‘stick save’ and now has once again flipped the bias to the bullish side.

In addition today the financials are very strong,

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SPY Analysis for March 19th 2014

Today was Fed decision day and it did not disappoint in terms of providing some volatility today.

My gut instinct today was that the market would do the typical thing today and sell off a bit on the 2pm announcement and then rally into the close and blast higher after that.

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Is the Stock Market Top in for 2014 ?

I have been studying the longer term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently and am trying to determine if the market has the potential to confirm a major top this year. It has been said that it is a fools game to try to pick market tops. In general I agree with this statement,

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Gold and Silver could be at KEY trading Juncture

I have been researching the gold and silver sector today and I am slowly coming to the conclusion that this sector has a very good chance of mounting a sizable upside bounce  (swing trade) from what seems like the bear market from hell.  To be sure, precious metals sentiment has been extremely bearish and at a record bearish level as compared to the 2008 bottom in gold. 

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Armstrong Turning Point Date next week on August 7th 2013

August 7th, 2013 of this upcoming week is a mid point turning point date according to Marty Armstrong’s famous cycle model.  It can be a bit confusing to understand his turning point dates, but here are a few points I would conclude about them:

  • They have the potential of being extremely precise (for example the high in the sp500 in 2007 was picked to the DAY. 

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Bearish Divergence in the sp500 Combined with Adam and Eve Top

There are a couple possible warnings flags of potential bearishness in the sp500 daily chart as of this writing.  I am seeing a class C bearish divergence between MACD and price in the daily sp500 price chart.  The class C bearish divergence is labeled class C from Alexander Elder’s book Trading for a Living where he defines three types of bearish technical divergences,

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RMTI Rockwell Medical Technologies poised for new Breakout

I was able to trade RMTI recently from 4.80 to about 5.80 and finally was able to get a good trade going after many recent whipsaws and stop loss take outs. I was beginning to wonder recently what was wrong with my trading.  I think I know now and am re thinking my entire trade entry criteria and the primary scans I will use for future ideas.

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AMD Advanced Micro Devices Position Trade to end 2013

It is looking like AMD is shaping up into a really good position trade into end 2013.  AMD has been around the block a few times.  This is no penny stock although it trades for 4 dollars and change right now.  It averages about 20 million shares a day and my price data on the company goes back to 1983. 

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The next Trillion dollar trade

The chart you are about to view below looks a little bit like a children’s drawing.  Of course it is not a children’s drawing, but instead a quarterly price candlestick chart of the US Dollar index, the ‘stock of the United States’.

20130704dollar

Quarterly price charts are obviously slow moving,

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