The SP500 is trading so slow and quiet in recent days that it would seem we are already trading in the hot lackluster summer month of August. The market is teasing both bears and bulls at this juncture and appears to be close to a decision point.
The ‘crash window’ I had written about earlier appears to be a lost cause at this point. Instead the market is trading in either a rising wedge or a head and shoulders bottom.
Since march of 2009, this market has been defined by reluctant downside and relatively persistent upside.
I continue to believe that if the market is somehow able to break above 1116.56, then the market could get a ‘get out of jail free card’ for now. But until that happens one has to assume that we are in a bearish counter trend rally or almost 1 month duration and that price will resume to the downside after it is complete.
The blue trendlines in the chart above are the trigger points for the next big move in my opinion and it could go either way, in a big way. I am not smart enough to tell you with a high degree of confidence right now which direction that will be.
So let’s let the market decide next week.