sp500 Rejects 2007 Bear Market Trend Line for the Third Time Today

Despite today’s seemingly weak, boring and lack luster action, I thought it was extremely fascinating.  You will understand what I am referring to once I post the chart of the sp500 below. 

The day started out with a somewhat muted reaction to the jobs report.  I knew that today was a critical day because any day that the sp500 is near or very close to a 3 year bear market resistance line, there are potentially very important implications for any big swings in price.

We started to get a minor sell off and I became a little bit fearful that the market was going to whipsaw my most recent BOT Long Signal.  But the market was once again very reluctant to push down and by the end of the day ended up printing a higher low and higher high on the sp500.

During the early part of the day I was a bit concerned of the possibility that we may start to form a tri star doji pattern on the sp500.  Even if today had formed a doji candlestick, it would still have been far from a perfect tri star doji pattern.  It was not meant to be and by the end of day the doji morphed into a modest up close candlestick.

There was a comment in a previous post here at BestOnlineTrades.com that pointed out a possible diamond pattern on the DJIA by a German Analyst.  I looked at that pattern and thought for a moment that he makes a very good point.  But then I realized that there could also exist the possibility that this diamond pattern is simply a continuation pattern rather than a reversal pattern.  I fail to see why he did not mention this in his interview.  Still it is an important possible pattern and makes it especially important to observe the nature of price behavior at the current juncture.

Yesterday I also participated in an online webinar hosted by Metastock where I was very interested to hear the presenter talk about how the only thing he follows is price for his signals.  He completely ignores all other indicators and oscillators.  His sole decision making is based on price.  He also said that price is a leading indicator, whereas oscillators and other typical indicators are lagging indicators.  I think I already knew this fact, but it was refreshing to hear it out loud.  The current trading juncture we are in now highlights the importance of this observation (that we must watch the behavior of price alone as a leading indicator).

The reason why I referred to the price action as extremely fascinating in the first paragraph of this post is because today the market tested and touched and rejected for the third time the 2007 three year bear market channel line.  We rejected it after being above it, not while being under it.  This is a very important distinction.

I don’t know how many of you use custom charting software such as metastock but I have to say that I believe that those that only rely on online charting programs may have some difficulty in seeing true precision of the top channel line since 2007 as I am able to see with metastock.  Perhaps I am wrong and the same precision can be seen with online charting programs such as stockcharts.com etc.  as it has been a long time since I have used stockcharts.com extensively or other online charting software.

My point is that right now precision is very important because it helps to define clear levels tested, broken or rejected.

Having said that, I must also realize that long term resistance lines can sometimes act as ZONES where they have some free play range.  So even though I am making bullish comments about the current behavior of price above the long term 2007 resistance line, I am also a realist and must recognize that there still exists this ‘window’ of time when price rises above a resistance line where it must prove itself.  Sometimes price trades slightly above a resistance channel for a little while but then becomes a failure breakout and falls rapidly back under the channel and into more bearish action.

Currently I do not see this as a near term possibility, but I am watching the tape closely in the current range.

Now onto the chart of the sp500:


It never ceases to amaze me how much detail and depth exists in a simple price chart.  With every chart there is usually some kind of story going on.

The chart of the sp500 above shows the long term bear market 2007 3 year resistance channel line.  It also shows that we are currently trading above this line now with four closes above it.  You can see on the three most recent candlesticks we have traded down towards this line but then each time rejected it while being above it.  This is significant in my opinion.

Four days ago a big ‘20/20 bar candlestick’ blasted us above this resistance channel line in a sign of strength.

Once can also see that we are currently trading above the 1150 level which is now support.  We are trading above the 2007 resistance line which is turning (slowly) into a support line and we are also trading slightly above the up trend line in force since the 1st of September 2010.

So given all that evidence I have to conclude that the trend is still up and is likely to trend higher in the days ahead, perhaps in chop chop fashion, 3 steps forward and 2 steps backward.  But again I am still not completely ruling out the possibility that this recent 4 day move is a fake breakout (because of the possible allowance of market action to trade in a zone of resistance instead of razor sharp resistance level).  For now I view that as a remote possibility.

My preferred scenario is a slow and steady move back up towards the April 2010 highs.  If and when that occurs it would be only natural to see a retracement from that level before moving higher.

But the big story today was again the market’s reluctance to dip lower and 3rd time rejection of the 2007 line.

I almost feel as if I have inside information while looking at this chart.  That is how potentially powerful it looks to me.  Traders really need to focus on this 2007 line, the uptrend since early September 2010 line and the 1150 line and the behavior around all of them.  This is the most important perspective at hand now.

The red shaded area is clearly a ‘no go’ area for the market.  In the unlikely scenario we go back in there, clearly I will have to change my outlook.  But again, this looks like a remote occurrence at this point.

The McClellan oscillator ticked higher again today and appears to be confirming my current view.  Also I noticed many key reversals and breakouts in some stocks on my watchlist today.

The BOT long signal is still in force and if the market continues to cooperate may stay so for quite some time.

Posted in Index Trading, Long Term Charts, Market Timing, SP500
4 comments on “sp500 Rejects 2007 Bear Market Trend Line for the Third Time Today
  1. ed says:

    Well it definitely is touch and go here.
    But I’ll call your 3 years and raise you 70 years. lol


  2. Tom says:

    wow that is an excellent chart Ed. I am speechless. I need to research that chart.

  3. Tom Tom says:

    but I wonder if price can break back above the top of the channel also ? I need to see if i can get my data on DJIA that far back and draw this trendline myself to see how it looks close up. Thanks for posting.

  4. Geoff says:

    thanks for posting Ed. . . . the chart gives hope to bears. i think we are very near the end of this “run” upward . . . for lots of reasons*. . . but i suppose the DOW could “jump” the line in a mad burst of euphoria and than settle back on top of the line. i give this a very low likelihood, but once this market starts taking profits, i think it will be very spectacular. But question is “when”?

    * 10 day moving average of advance / decline is on day #26 of positive readings. it would take at least 2 days to turn the ma negative, and that would be very negative days. an extreme reading is 33 days positive

    * 10 day moving average of ARMS / TRIN is at 1.00 so lots of room for bad day

    * investor sentiment is heating up – – bullish – – look at readings in this wkends Barron’s – – i am guessing that they will have jumped more bullish – – i guess Consensus will go from 63% bull to maybe 70% – – the Aall did go from 42.5% bull to 49.5% bull (posted early Thurs)

    * the EW crowd has been screaming for a fall for about the past year. Last I heard, Doug Kass (not EW) said last week that top was at hand. You still have the Hindenberg Omen out there that no one has talked about in almost 45 days.

    * so many fundamental reasons, latest foreclosure mess / banks, unemployment, baby boomers retiring thus limiting huge amounts of demand absolutely, the elections and if we get gridlock that will be a BIG problem if we encounter another meltdown, exceptionally low interest rates are draining the income generating power of all savers and forcing them to take on riskier assets, currency / economic wars

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