SPY ETF Working into a Top the Next Several Days ?

spy20090917

I have gone back and forth with my bullishness and bearishness on the broad market recently.  I just think it is important to be prudently cautious at these levels.

There is supposed to be an important astro aspect early next week that may stop this market dead in its tracks and case the long awaited correction according to Larry Pesavento.

Tomorrow there is a new moon, then next week we have the fall equinox as well as combust (an astro aspect).  We also have options expiration tomorrow but that does tend to have an upward bias.

Anyway if you look at the above chart you can see that the triple bearish divergence based on the MACD indicator versus price is still in force.  It will be activated if we get a histogram bar that is LOWER than the recently rising ones.  So far they are still rising and so no confirmed signal has developed yet.

If a signal does develop I suspect it should develop over the next 6 trading days or so.

If we do not fail and break down very badly by end of next week then the astro aspects failed to nail any top yet.

If a confirmed sell signal does develop in the SPY then I might take a closer look at the TZA ETF (small cap bear 3X shares) for some possible upside from a developing correction.

It is very difficult to pinpoint an exact top.  And honestly if we do not turn down hard tomorrow then it hard for me to see how this sell signal is going to develop in time for the astro stuff next week.  I think we need to see a hard down day tomorrow to get this divergence in motion.  Stay tuned, if I see a confirmed sell signal I will mention it here.

Posted in ETFS, Index Trading, Market Timing, SP500
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