The one thing I forgot to mention in my previous post regarding the S&P 500 breaking to new highs was that we cannot rule out a delay of the breakout due to ‘low volume summer trading’ ! The low volume factor was ignored however on June 17th. And it was a Friday at that! So at this point I do not know whether to ignore the factor of summer slow trading or open myself up to the possibility that it will not be a factor this time.
This does bring up a general point worth mentioning. Is it even worth trading or following the markets during the slow summer months? I suppose it depends on what you favorite flavor is. If you love to dabble in small stocks or the OTC BB market then the summer is probably definitely NOT a good time to be trading too much. The problem is that during slow summer months there can be so much whipsawing, minor ranges and lackluster volume that the only thing it really accomplishes for you if extra commission charges from your online trading firm.
But alas, there are alternatives. You could concentrate solely on trading QQQ’s or spyders on an intra-day basis and make your trades quick and light.
Anyway, the bottom line is that experience suggests to keep your trading very selective during the summer months or you are setting yourself up to be eaten for lunch!
P.S. Right now the S&P 500 is hovering like a bat right under longer term resistance… If the ‘summer doldrums’ effect kicks in, the first sign will be a price break back down under the previous high volume swing mentioned previously! That could mean a bit more backing and filling will occur to weed out the weak hands before the big breakout!
P.P.S. As far as the occurence of the actual breakout, when it happens, we want to watch for long price spread and confirmed volume, then after that a low volume retest back to the new support area, but ahhhh… I am getting ahead of myself !