The attempts at looking for weakness in the stock market are not working. I am switching back to Long signal as of the current price in the sp500 which is 1194 as I write. I expect the market to ‘drip’ higher into the end of October and then expect to see some selling in the early part of November as part of the sell the election news and Fed news. But I expect after that sell off, much more upside to come.
After reviewing several charts over the last several days I have come to the firm conclusion that the ONLY way for the sp500 or ‘the market’ to transfer into a very bearish stance would be an almost total collapse occurring during the last 5 trading days of October 2010. While anything is possible in the market, it looks like a very remote possibility that the market will be able to drop about 5% during the next 5 trading days. The nasdaq 100 Index would need to get to 2016 by Friday of this week and the other indices a similar measure in percent.
If by some huge miracle the Nasdaq 100 closes near 2016 by this Friday then I will start to become open minded about bearish possibilities again. But this is looking like an extremely remote possibility now.