marty armstrong cycle - tag category postings

If you are interesting in the economy and fundamental side of the markets then you may want to check out the writings of Martin Armstrong.  He is probably one of the most brilliant economists ever in no small part due to the fact that he came up with a precise cycle model that has pinpointed often to the exact day, certain major turning points in the market. 

His cycle model nailed the exact top in the sp500 decades ahead of time, picked the top in the Nikkei in 1989 to the exact day, and also nailed the top in 1998 to name a few.  The next major major 8.6 year cycle point according to his model is 2011.45, and that date could very well turn out to be a very major low (or high) for the market).  2011.45 comes out to 6/14/2011.  If we break below 1040 on the sp500 this August then it would seem to suggest we will travel down into this 6/14/2011 8.6 year cycle date.  Previous 8.6 year cycle dates were 2002.85, then 1994.25 and 1985.65.

In his most recent report he has said that August will be a big turning point for the markets.  This makes sense from what the astro folks have been talking about, but Marty is no Astro nut.  He is about cycle models and world wide capital flows and their complex interrelationships.

His latest PDF report is here and he also has one coming out concerning the Mayan 2012 almost 26,000 year cycle date in the future.

Sign up with your email at ArmstrongEconomics.com (needs email confirmation as well).

I am not kidding you when I tell you that his research material previously used to cost well into the thousands of dollars for his monthly reports.  Sometimes it is heavy reading and goes into politics and other confusing matters but often there is enough good meat in his reports to make for very informative insights.

The reason his reports are free right now is because I believe he is still writing them from jail. Yes jail.  His previous firm Princeton Economics International was busted by the US government accusing him of operating it as a pyramid scheme.  For many years now they have held him in jail for contempt of court and as far as I know he has not had any fair trial.

I don’t know if he is guilty or innocent but I do know that the government shut down his website and eliminated public access to a huge storage of valuable historic market information going back thousands of years.  He had it all available at his site for free.

Marty has historical knowledge of markets and economics going back thousands of years and he puts that perspective into his current take on the markets and economy.  Definitely worth checking out.

In case you do not know about it yet, I would like to tell you about what I believe to be the most powerful cycle model ever created.  I did not create it.  It was created by a man named Marty Armstrong who headed the former Princeton Economics Institute which was an institutional advisory and money management firm.  PEI as it was known has since been shut down by the United States government for reasons I can’t speak to because I don’t know the details or facts about them.  But I will say that it is a crying shame that their business and knowledge was shut down because it was in my opinion some of the most valuable and important financial knowledge ever devised.

The former website itself used to have unbelievable amounts of historical research on money and financial panics going back hundreds and even thousands of years.  The only reason I know about it is through a radio program that used to play in California and was hosted by Buzz Schwartz, a trader and radio host.  He used to have Marty on as a guest and I listened to their interviews and his advice on markets.  I also got a few of Marty’s monthly ‘Capital Market Review’ publications and that is how I am able to tell you about his cycle model.

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Next week sometime I am going to write a post on the Marty Armstrong cycle turning points.  It will be more of a long term oriented posting, but I am going to try to include an extended version of his global business cycle model and create one in graphical form so that it will be extended out another 50 years from now.

Now if you are asking yourself right now, who the heck is Marty Armstrong and what is this cycle about.  Well let me just say that I am not the creator of this 8.6 year cycle model.  It was created and founded by a man named Marty Armstrong and his now closed down organization Princeton Economics International.  His firm has been shut down for several years now by the government and I am not going to go into details of why and how and what.

My purpose is just to bring to light this cycle model here as a reference point.  I am not an expert on the cycle model and also not privy to the detailed inner workings or interpretations of the model.  However, what I will say is that I have kept this cycle model with me for many years from some free reports that he published and I can tell you that it has the most precise cycle turning points I have ever seen.  They are not perfect but they can be.

But again this is more of a long term type reference tool.  It is by no means a day to day model or even week to week model.  We are talking years here.

But sometimes years can be very significant when you are trying to figure out what the correct trend direction is in the market.  Imagine if you were long the Japanese Nikkei Index in 1989 and margined up to the max and still bullish.  Well, the Nikkei peaked in 1989 and the peak was picked precisely by Marty’s turning point.  That is very useful information. If you did not have it then you might have stayed long on the Nikkei after that first correction, but it was a very fast and vicious correction.. I doubt that many were able to get out quick enough.

So that is my little preview.  More to come on this one.  It may be the most valuable post I do on this entire site because I will be giving you a cheat sheet with powerful turning points for 50 years into the future.