I am switching back to BOT short on the sp500 at 1266 for possibly a very long time (ie. most of the rest of this year). The barrage of whipsaw signals during the last several weeks has been somewhat frustrating, but if that was the price to finally get it right with today’s signal then so be it.
The volume in the SPY today will come in very heavy and has me now thinking the entire consolidation of the last week or two was simply cause building for a busting of 1250. I believe now that 1250 will be broken decisively and this market will not just be in a ‘mini bear’, but instead a ‘max bear’.
I also reviewed the longer term price charts and they are confirming the longer term bearish outlook. I pointed out some of these bearish signs in a previous post but once again seem to have ignored my own advice and instead given too much weight to the daily action.
The interpretation and over emphasis of the daily action over the weekly and monthly action is still one of my biggest short comings with market analysis.
Having the ability to ‘relax’ and let the weekly and monthly signals play out is maybe one of the most important market analysis traits anyone can ever have… and I need to work on that because I still let the daily tape influence my mind sometimes more than the weekly or monthly tape.
So get your hard hats out… this bear is for real and we are in for a big extended retracement…