The Obsession with the SP500 Index

spyearly02192010

I just cannot seem to stop this obsession with the SP500.  I am not sure why.  Perhaps because it is so enticing to try to figure out what direction it is going in 2010.  It is like the big mother earth ship whose direction is so crucial.  So crucial not just for the sake of the economic health of the globe, but crucial to the many forecasters who have made some big market calls in recent memory.

It occurred to me today how amazing it would be if the SP500 is now able to make new 52 week highs in the weeks ahead.  I almost cannot believe I am even considering that possibility, but looking at the behavior and nature of the yearly chart gets me thinking it is at least a possibility.

So far in 2010 we retraced into the 2009 yearly candlestick down to 1044.50  In previous posts I was talking about how this is very normal market action and that is exactly what we did so far.  But what we also have done now is rally very close to the crucial level of 1116 I had mentioned several times before.

If we are able to crawl higher in the weeks ahead it is going to start building a yearly candle body again and would at least open the door of possibility that that the 1044.50 low was all the bears could get done for now.  This is exactly what happened in the 2004 yearly candle.  The bottoming tail was very minimal, and it came off of a pretty strong yearly reversal candlebar in 2003.  We are in a similar situation now.

I still doubt that we will easily blast to new highs.  Instead as I have already talked about, a modest swing trading range for several months would be ideal to work off the overbought levels and create enough rotation in the market for a new leg higher later in the year 2010.

It is clear that the action since March of 2009 has been a very clear sign of strength and amazingly the tape still continues to show me that message.

I think the best times to short the market are when you see the 20 week moving average in a negative crossover stance to the 50 day moving average.  We are nowhere near that point yet and I don’t know when we will get there, but when we do then I will look more seriously at the short side of the market.  I would much rather be more focused on the short side of the market when we know that the shorts are heavily in control and have downward momentum, instead of the opposite which still seems to be the case now.

Posted in Market Timing, SP500
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