I decided to go long TLR Timberline Resources right now for a while. This is a trend trade and I intend to hold it through the end of this year. I expect the gold price to maintain a bullish bias going into the end of the year and into the first quarter of next year and that fact alone should make TLR a no brainer at this point.
TLR has a beautiful up trend, beautiful volume accumulation and a nice longer term chart. Even if I am wrong in the short term, longer term (3 to 6 months) I expect TLR to be much higher from these levels.
It has been hard finding ‘safe’ long candidates going into the end of this year. While there is no such thing as ‘safe’ in the marketplace, there are some trades that make you feel as though you have the wind at your back and TLR falls into that category right now. Last time I checked gold was still in a bull market and is the only REAL bull market that I know of right now. The broad market is in a bull market now too but it is in a corrective bull market in the context of a much larger bear market that began in the year 2000.
The broad market will likely head higher into the end of the year as well, but the problem is it has been very tricky finding really solid long candidates in the broad market (at least for me it has been) because many of them are so over extended. Plus I just don’t trust the broad market advance as much as I trust the gold market advance. It is all about having a good setup and finding a good entry.
The GDX Gold miners index is supporting the case of a massive topside breakout to new all time highs based on the longer term charts I am looking at. So mining is going to be in play big time going into the end of the year and I fully expect TLR to join that camp as well.
Plus from a psychological perspective I have noticed that CNBC and other media have started to catch on to the gold euphoria. It is not at peak levels yet but I am sure it will be there come March of next year. By then it will probably become accepted that gold is only going in one direction. UP. And that people need to buy into it.
We need to see some REAL gold fever take hold. It has been a long time in wait. So I am sticking with TLR as a trend trade for a while. In the meantime I will be on the lookout for other good setups but TLR takes the cake for now.