Trying the BOT Short Again Just Now

I am re establishing the BOT short signal right now at 1266 on the sp500.  There are a number of reasons for this and I will go over them later today.

I feel it is worth it to try the short signal again now given how far we are up in the clouds in  terms or price and sentiment.  Sometimes good news ( jobs growth) can interpreted as bad news in the same breath.

I went long the TZA just now at 15.66

More details later.

Posted in BOT Short Signal
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7 comments on “Trying the BOT Short Again Just Now
  1. JR says:

    I concur with your short signal. Closed all my long positions an hour ago when it became obvious that the S&P would not hold 1270.

  2. Tom says:

    Yea JR

    It seems we are going to head into sell mode next week. I am seeing many important weekly reversal candlestick hammers.

    Also we need to retrace into the 2010 yearly candlestick to see if there is any demand there… should be interesting to see how things look next week.

  3. shrihas says:

    Tom,

    Thanks for the update. I am not shorting but I think S&P will make another attempt at 1280. It will be third attempt in last four days, so I expect that to be successful.

    I am not seeing impulsive wave down that is why I think S&P will be back above 1277.

    Let us see how it goes.

  4. Geoff says:

    Tom

    I am on your side, BUT the EW blogger “pug” seems to think that top may be 1304 by end Jan with a 7% pullback and than onward and upward. He also seems to have an alternative long term EW count that he apparently only gives 10% chance – – – and that is downward trajectory to 950 over 2011 and than back and filling in declining wedge in 2012. “pug” has a very very hot hand. I hope the market cracks here the most obscene thing would be for it to continue even higher. Will be very interesting to see how the investor sentiment indicators are in Barron’s this wkend. Fingers really crossed HARD that today is start of something. . . . . but

  5. Tom says:

    Yes well I may be a bit early… It will be a close call for sure. Today was not necessarily the strongest sell signal, maybe there is only 40% evidence so far, but still I wanted to take a shot and see if there can be some confirmation next week.

    The US Dollar really looks like it wants to take off. I thought before it was going to continue to trend bearish, but it could take off soon which would seem to be a factor in causing equities to pull back which we have already seen in gold quite a bit.

  6. Tom says:

    I looked at the AAII sentiment survey yesterday and it looks like it is in nosebleed territory. Not that sentiment picks precise tops but it looks bad enough to me from a contrarian standpoint.

  7. Geoff says:

    The WSJ had an interesting observation about a week ago about investor sentiment and specifically the Aall. The brief article ptd out that THE 8 WK AVERAGE of Aall was at the highest level in 8 or so years, and their graph showed it was much higher than at the 2007/9 top. Commentators have mentioned that sentiment is much more of a “driver” on the bearish side, e.g. March 2009 when Aall Bearish was a whopping 70%. But still the 4 sentiment indicators published wkly in Barron’s are getting pretty elevated. As mentioned earlier, the Consensus Index of bullish sentiment was at 71% last week. However, I have seen at least one of these sentiment indicators get up to 90% and that really was the “bell” which called the top.

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