The inverse market index ETFS seem attractive now from current levels. They have made an initial move higher 2 weeks ago and encouraged bears readily, but since then have bled lower again discouraging bears once again.
However my sense now is that they are ready for another leg higher, possibly a significant move higher.
The weekly charts in the indices are starting to look particularly bearish to me and should help the inverse ETFs outperform for a bit in my opinion.
I hope you are right. I hold TZA and bought more on Thurs last week. However, your postings are frequently contrary indicators, so now I am more nervous than I was. I hope this time you are right for at least a couple days!
/www.stockconsultant.com/
after close today (Marcfh 7) the website above technically gave TZA a 90% bullish to 10% bearish rating. this website is NOT reliable. for example, at the close on Friday March 4th the rating was 40% / 60% so a HUGE swing in just one day of trading. BUT i throw this information out as a “straw in wind” that maybe, just maybe TZA will make a move. it seems to me that over the past couple months it should have gotten to 48 – 52 or so (16+ pre-reverse split) – – so maybe it will do that this time? ! ? !
The 10 day moving average of Trin / Arms is only at 1.35 which is only very mildly bearish and very very far from a spike in bearishness. The 10 day moving average of Advance Decline just turned negative today (March 7th)and the “runs” in negative territory on the 10 MA have been very very short over the past 6 months, e.g. runs of only, literally a couple days or so, which is beyond abnormal – – – – so maybe, maybe this time we can put together a run of 10 to 20 days of negative 10MA days.
fingers crossed!
Other food for thought. Suppose we just go sideways in the market. It appears the daily BB’s of the indexes have set a precedent that we will be range trading here for awhile. SPX top BB 1343 while the bottom is 1300. I think that if we are above the BB and the daily 55 we will not go down, once those are breached then yes. We are however trading below the daily 21 on all indexes which is a sign of weakness.