UNG Natural Gas ETF Reverses down hard


Ok well I am a bit disappointed in the way UNG played out. UNG stopped out today right at the close at 12.90 for a loss of 7.06%.  I suppose it is better to be stopped out right at the close of the day than to sit on something like UNG overnight.  This was a violent in your face reversal. Wow.  The chart above shows a clear birds eye view of what is going on with UNG.

The left side of the chart is monthly price bars.  You do not have to know much about technical analysis to know that this chart depicts a crashing price and severe price weakness. But the interesting part is the most recent monthly price bar that has a little yellow arrow pointing at it.

There is only one week left in the month of July and so that price bar will be complete in the next 6 trading days.  This is important because if during the next 6 trading days UNG can develop a close near the top of that price bar it says to me that the price crash in UNG is coming much closer to ending and could bode well for August price action in UNG.

In the near term as shown on the daily prices of the chart above you can see that despite today’s violent downside action in the UNG ETF there is still some sign of a modest uptrend since about 9 days ago.  Today’s close under that uptrendline almost invalidates it, but if UNG can snap back up tomorrow within the trendline we could still call the uptrend valid.

But the bottom line for the short term is that UNG needs to hold above 12.66 to sustain any type of bullish scenario going into August.

BestOnlineTrades Recommended List Symbol Date of Rec. Entry Stop Buy Stop Result
  UNG 7/22/09 13.88 12.90   –7.06%
FITB 7/22/09 7.60     *
CEMJQ 7/22/09 .275     *
Posted in Commodity ETF, ETFS, Online Trading, Technical Analysis
2 comments on “UNG Natural Gas ETF Reverses down hard
  1. Travis Steward says:


    You are the market and you don’t even know it.

    You bought exactly at the top, and you stopped exactly at the bottom. Give or take a few. Why do you think it’s rallying today?

    Because it was others like you, with the same ideas, and the same weak downside, that ended up selling and putting in the low.

  2. Tom Tom says:

    Thank you for your comment. I am happy to hear that you are able to pick every bottom and every high precisely without fail.

    As I indicated in my follow up article, I believe that UNG is working its way into a final eventual low based on the longer term chart as shown above.

    To your point about ‘same weak downside’. That was not weak downside. It is called a stop. It was placed there for a reason. It just so happens that UNG hit that stop within a penny or two. Such is life and such is the way of the market sometimes.

    I still believe that UNG is putting in a bottom. Sometimes one has to keep trying to probe a bottom and lose a few times before you can really run with it…

    If you have any other good points on UNG and your thoughts either bullish or bearish please continue to share.
    Thank you.

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