I think we have a good clue here in the form of the UUP ETF (US Dollar ETF) that may provide good hints as to when the first more involved market correction will begin (maybe a 6 month correction?).
The UUP is rapidly approaching the 22 level. The 22 level is not a huge significant support area, but it is still a support area that bears watching in relation to how many other markets are trading.
I suspect that a UUP move to near the 22 area is going to result in some sort of huge upside oversold bounce which then results in some sort of consolidation of this bear leg down we have had which has been quite persistent.
That could imply a broad market correction that last several months to work off the recent overbought levels. Now whether and how close the UUP gets to 22 is unknown at this time. I think it could still go lower and reach 22, but it is not out of the question for the bounce to occur from present levels or slightly lower.
The UUP getting to 22 may also be a concern for the gold price and cause a correction there too. I would like to see gold get moving higher and FAST. It had a bit of a breakdown today but is still trading within its uptrend channel. It is too tough for me to call a top in gold right now but the risk is there.
I really expected gold to move a lot faster and a lot higher than it has already. If it does not get moving upwards next week straight out of the gate, then it may warn more slow and extended correction is on the way.