We are getting close to a bottom according to Google News

Google News Homepage can be a great way to find out current trendy and frenzied topics that many are searching for and obsessed with.  I have found it quite rare for the “Dow Jones Industrial Average” to be at the very top of the google news top stories sections. 

A few days ago it was slightly more than half way down the list, but today it is number two.

This is a near term contrarian signal that we are getting close to a bottom, and it makes sense also given how close we are to 1250 in the sp500 now.

Count on google news to give you great sentiment readings on the public’s perception of the market.  You never want to be very heavily short when you see Dow Jones Industrial Average near the top spot…

google

I actually just hit the refresh button a few seconds ago and now the DJIA is in the number one spot! Right near the Marty Armstrong June 13, 2011 turn date on Monday !  Interesting coincidence. Smile

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10 comments on “We are getting close to a bottom according to Google News
  1. Max says:

    Hey Tom,

    Come on, the general public has never been too enthusiastic about this rally and didn’t really participate in it, so we can basically discard their perception.
    Besides, Armstrong’s 8.6 year cycle turn date should be of a little more significance than a mere six-week 7% correction.

    Max

  2. ed says:

    Tom
    Not sure I get your interpretation. Are you saying the that Googles bottom call for the market should be seen as a signal for more upside? I think the contrarian take would be the oppossite

    Looking at Armstrong 8.6 cycle I would agree with RMT that this may be just the beginning of the cycle down. I certainly don’t see us in a new cycle up after just a small premature correction but a continuation down

  3. Tom says:

    Basically was trying to say that it is a contrarian signal since the dow jones industrial average is more of the ‘peoples index’ . I am not sure exactly how those stories are moved to the top of the list. If it is based on search queries then it is quite good data.

    Other examples are when the market becomes a main theme story on PBS newshour or national public radio.. also good contrarian signals in my past experience.

    We might hit a short term low early this upcoming week and then more down later…

  4. Tom says:

    Yes I agree with you.. basically I think we could get to 1250 and then bounce for a few weeks from there.. then maybe down again after that..

  5. RMT says:

    Instead of google, I think CNBC talking heads are always the best contrarian indicators. A bounce is likely sometime next week. We are very oversold on the SPY and its coming up on some good support level. Remember guys nothing goes straight down (or up, unless the fed is behind it). Yes I agree that in the long run, the market goes down, but we’re going to have wild swings and bounces along the way; nothing is as simple as it seems. So I wouldn’t blindly short the market trying to play the cycle downturn. Nor would I try to get too cute by trying to catch the 1 or 2 day swing trades. If the market goes down to the 125 level on the Spy, there will be a lot of support with the pivot low, 200 MA, “whole number” of 125. I would like to see volume capitulation, ie, over 300 million traded on SPY to reach that pivot low. The pivot low on 3/16 had over 400 million traded on SPY. If we get there, that would be an excellent long entry, considering the overly bearish sentiment right now. Any bounce now will cath the shorts with their pants down, and we’ll probably have a huge short squeeze as well.

  6. geoff says:

    as I have commented many times here. i think the best contrarian indicator is this blog. heck, reader beware! maybe we will be “saved” by voodoo / hocus pocus musings of Armstrong and his 8.6 cycle which lands precisely(?) on June 13th. give me a break!

    i give this blogger a lot of credit for the technical sophistication of his blog site, but absolutely NOT his technical analysis as related to the stock market. what education does this blogger have? does this blogger have to register with the SEC? what are the blogger’s credentials?

    this blogger seems to take credit for calls – – great calls made. . . it sure would be interesting to document that, but i sure as heck am not going to take the time to go back and research. what happened to his “cheetah system”? what happened to URRE after he made the long call about 60 days ago.

    i have been following this blog for almost a year now, and i was way to gullible. first i learned that this blog seems to put a lot of faith in astrological aspects (cardinal climax mentioned ad naseum about a year ago), than 8.6 year cycle work of a man that has been imprisoned for the last 11 years reputedly for an $800 million ponzi type scheme, and lastly this blogger alludes to the mayan calendar end of days as something to base a stock market analysis on.

    it is reassuring to me that this blogger seems to believe that the market will bounce off 1250. that assumption supports my hunch that if it does bounce it may be very short lived. i agree that the Aall Investor Sentiment Index is flashing bearish (47% bears) but the WSJ had an article about 2 wks ago that focused specifically on this index and the article suggested that the Aall over the past 6 months has been more of a coincident indicator rather than what is commonly thought to be a contrary indicator. at the march 09 low, the Aall was 72 – 75% bearish. also, i was struck / shocked by the very low Arms Trin reading for the single day on June 10th – – it was only 1.02 as reported in Barrons. that indicates absolutely no fear.

    only my opinion of course, but i think this correction will surprise to the downside. . . . but another blogger that i have been following – – who has been extremely awesomely accurate – – expects one more leg up to about 1440 – – so i expect it will happen. but the fundamentals seem atrocious, in the USA, Europe, and in emerging markets. any further major event of nature could really cause a jolt.

    in summary, i am delighted to see that this blogger, while he changed his call from long to short after one day, is calling for a bottom in the very near future and only 20 or fewer SP pts away.

    i would like for my comments to be fair so if this blogger can demonstrate how his calls have been accurate, i sure would be interested to read about it. but simply claiming that they are accurate does not make them so.

  7. geoff says:

    one more thing that makes me suspicious about this pretty shallow and really rather subdued pullback is that the VIX absolutely has refused to spike in to the mid 20s or anywhere close to that. while the Aall is bearish, but not obscenely bearish, the other sentiment indicators reported in Barron’s weekly are not anywhere close to being as bearish

  8. Thanks for this informative topic. The 6 straight weeks of losses is likely the pull back investors are looking for to add more to their portfolios. And I have been also following the market and wonder if it will continue to slowly grind down into 4 digit territory again. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit. It seems like there is little catalyst to make it rise.

  9. ed says:

    Full Moon Wednesday. Would expect a bounce starting around there as has been it’s history but by know means written in stone

  10. Danile says:

    Hi Geoff,

    Thank you for your comment. I do have similar feelings about this blog, although I can not deny the blogger has done a lot of research and work. I followed his advice on SCON (the best of best…., post) and ended up losing 20% within a few days. We also know that there were totally mess-up with DBLE and URRE. So, all in all, this is not the blog if you can benefit from.
    Geoff, would you mind letting me know the other blog you mentioned. Any good advice from there?

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