Huge Move Coming in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF

There is a very large move coming in the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) .  It looks like this move will occur Friday September 3, 2010 right near the USA government employment report. 

There are several factors leading me to the conclusion that a huge move will occur. We have the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) trading in a small rising wedge right near topside all time high resistance.  We have the US Dollar Index trading in a stance that suggests to me it is ready to break down badly.  We also have the GDX gold miners ETF trading at the top of its large swing trading range as well.

I have to be honest with you.  I have a lot of confusion about which way the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) is going to break tomorrow.  My initial thought is that it will be a huge topside breakout to new life time highs based on my read of the charts, but there are some problems with that theory.

One problem is the light volume rally we have had in the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) since the early August 2010 low.  I just think we should have had much more robust volume on the advance towards the life time highs.

The second issue is the GDX.  It did a very large bearish engulfing candlestick yesterday of a previous doji.  The GDX is playing head games right now and is teasing an indication of a possible move lower.  The engulfing setup has not however been confirmed yet.

The weekly histogram of the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) looks quite bullish and says a huge topside move should occur next week.  September bullish seasonality kicks in now or more towards the first third of September.

So I am getting some mixed signals right now.  I suspect those mixed signals will turn into confident signals after tomorrow morning…

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This is definitely a very interesting setup here.  If forced to pick a direction I would have to say up at this  point based on the way the US Dollar Index is setup. 

Posted in ETFS, Gold Market
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