August 7th, 2013 of this upcoming week is a mid point turning point date according to Marty Armstrong’s famous cycle model. It can be a bit confusing to understand his turning point dates, but here are a few points I would conclude about them:
- They have the potential of being extremely precise (for example the high in the sp500 in 2007 was picked to the DAY. In addition the low of the 1987 crash was identified precisely also).
- Sometimes they do not work or are somewhat late or early.
- They should be viewed within the context of what the market is doing beforehand. So a market shooting up strongly into a turn point date creates evidence that the market would turn on the cycle date. The opposite holds true for a market falling rapidly into a turn point cycle date.
- It is important to try to confirm other technical criteria with the cycle dates.
- The turning point dates do not occur that often !
Marty says he does not believe this turning point date will be a major top next week. He says the major top should on or near 2015.75 ( October 2015 ) and that the current bull run has quite a ways to go (UP) until that date.
He also says that there is a chance we do a false breakdown within the next couple of weeks (maybe right after August 7th, 2013 ? ) that creates a pivot point for a new strong rally higher.
This is interesting to me because it definitely has been the case that the current market has used all corrections, even small ones as fuel for new and huge rallies higher.
See his actual blog post where he discusses this August 7th, 2013 turning point date.
I will be quite intrigued to see how the action plays out the next couple of weeks. A sharp and fast downside shakeout would be an interesting development for this market given that it has lately only seemed to trickle higher ever so slightly.