I just jumped over to see what Bill McLaren’s thoughts are on the market. I guess he occasionally does CNBC gigs with technical analysis updates. I don’t quite know his method but I think he uses Gann and Fibonacci studies and volume as well. Apparently this can help give him precise dates for potential moves.
I thought his recent take was quite interesting and especially this particular quote:
But within that rally was a reversal day (R) and for 30 years I’ve been viewing the lack of “follow through” as significant.
He is referring to a reversal day we had in the market a few days ago that did not show good follow through and then he points out the other times this happened since April. It is an interesting comparison. See his chart and discussion yourself here.
He also takes a look at the mid 1970 market time frame and makes the point that we may be at a similar juncture. I have made these comparisons in the past as well to the mid 1970 time frame and the dynamics of the market right now are coming pretty close to the point where there will be zero doubt left on either its alignment or total failure. I will have some chart comparisons coming up eventually to explain exactly what I mean.
Lastly he talks about the US Dollar Index. The dollar may be at an important juncture now as well. He indicates Oct 4 as a potential turn date. This seems consistent with my look at the chart of the US dollar index that is showing it is right at decent support.
Why is this important?
Because the dollar plunge during September largely helped the market rocket higher very fast. If the dollar index finally spikes up for change it could roll the market down soon.