The market is moving higher this week but it is sort of drifting higher instead of really moving higher. I just got done looking at most of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and for the most part what I saw was steady slow uptrends and consolidations. It still does not look like this market is going to fall apart as some are saying.
However in the short term we could have a sell signal developing in the nasdaq QQQs. Today we tested the swing on 8/28/09 which had 114,000,000 shares traded that day. So far today it does not look like we are going to get over 100,000,000 shares for the day and we might closed under that 8/28 swing high.
If that remains the case by the close of today then it is a short term sell signal and we may flip back to the other side of the trading range to the 39 level.
So the important thing to watch for today is the total QQQ volume by the end of the day today and to see if we still close under the 8/28 swing high.
The market so far still does not look like it wants to fall apart like some are saying. We will have to see if this short term sell signal becomes valid by the end of the day. If it does then it may open the door to this long awaited more involved correction.
I still prefer to stick to my longer term forecast where I see the SP500 zooming right into its longer term down trendline. However in order for it to have a chance of doing that it must hold support along the longer term green up trendline since March of 2009.
We are still early enough in September where I can see us getting a seasonal down turn. By the way Rosh Hashanah is on Friday September 18th which is only about 1 week away. Many times in the past that has been a trigger date for more involved selling to begin.
So if we get a confirmed sell signal today maybe it will start the long awaited correction into end of September.
At the market close today I will post a small note on twitter with final volumes and conclusions on the QQQ.