1112 on Monday August 2 2010 is Maximum Bearish Threshold

It looks like the 1112 level on a closing basis is the maximum allowable upside move we can see in the sp500 that would still keep the bearish case alive.

According to the chart plotted below there are really only 3 days left for a resolution from this recent congestion area.  So this means at the very latest by Wednesday of next week or August 4th, 2010, a decision will have to be made by the stock market whether we will break down or break up from here.  My bias is still that we break down from here.

sp50020100730

One cannot rule out either that the next 3 trading days of next week will simply be sideways trading.  That would only postpone the eventual breakout direction but it would also make it potentially more powerful because of the extra energy being built up.

Posted in SP500, Technical Analysis
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