A recent report was sent out by Marty Armstrong on January 5, 2011. It is a worthwhile read as he discusses a little bit the June 13, 2011 turning point and also talks about gold and some other markets as well.
The middle of page 3 is a good place to start.
He clearly describes the June 13, 2011 as important especially since it is one of the large 8.6 year turning points. The proper interpretation according to him is that it is a turning point, so what I recommend people do is keep a close eye on some major market indices, commodities and currencies in the weekly to monthly time frame and then closely observe them as we get near this turning point date.
It is amazing to see in the report above that the 2007.15 turning point date marked the top in the real estate bubble as Marty points out in his essay. He also points out the interim turn point dates and talks about other markets that turned there as well.
If the particular market wants to align with the model then you will see the reversal start to happen and you will also be able to see this reversal happen with tradition technical analysis indicators.
I do not want to pre judge this turning point too much so early before the actual date, but it would be quite nice to see it pinpoint turns in some major markets or commodity markets. In other words there may be some very ideal, and maybe even precise short setups occurring near this date.
But June 13, 2011 is a good 4+ months away, so still plenty of patience required…
The problem with armstrongs turn date is that sometime it takes months to figure out which market turned. in 2007, IYR turned, but SPY kept going up for another few months before market topped out.
How many people have realized IYR turned soon after the turn date?
That is a great point and worth remembering. Thanks for pointing it out. Some tops are created so slowly that we only really become aware of the fact well after it happened making the turning point seem somewhat useless.
I suppose a remedy is to focus very keenly on the weekly and monthly price charts of various indices near the turn date and also on the candlestick formations on the weekly and monthly candlestick charts. If indeed the Marty Armstrong cycle date is going to work then there should be early clues in the weekly monthly and even quarterly candlestick charts. Because price is the best leading indicator, there should be clues in price first before everything else. But then also there should be some type of clue in the MACD and MACD histogram and RSI indicators as well.
But again this is no perfect science. I have seen some of his turning points work exactly to the day, and others be completely ignored.
If we look at the IYR on the weekly monthly and quarterly time scale one can see some early signs right before February 25, 2007 (the Marty Armstrong cycle 8.6 year turning point date) that it may have been a top. Weekly MACD was starting to curl over and the first weekly candlestick of February 2007 was a shooting star candlestick. Two weeks later it topped out.
The monthly candlestick for February 2007 was not a perfect shooting star candlestick by any means, but it still did have a reasonable size topping tail and the most significant one in years I would say.
See this post John as it may help a little bit.
MartyArmstrong nailed the top in the real estate Market in 2007 almost to the exact day.
Sometimes his turning point dates are very cloudy and do not work well so keep in mind that is always a possibility as well. It is all about probabilities.
Thanks for the reply. Keep up the good work thanks for sharing valuable info. I am too long URRE for the long term