Minor Follow Through on the Downside today in the sp500

Today was a somewhat muted reaction to yesterday’s negative price action in the sp500.  The volume was light and I got no real sense that the market is ready to show a heavy bout of weakness.

But I have been in this environment before and it is typically characteristic of the market to be very subtle and quiet before any major significant trend change is about to take place.  I could be wrong about us starting to form a top now and the market may revert back to my original theory of the sp500 moving to 1470 before any more sustained downside reaction is to occur.

The market should provide an more definitive answer about whether it is at a top level or wants to progress to 1470 within the next 20 to 25 trading days, or somewhat earlier.

The answer should come in the form of either an upside breakout from the rising wedge formation we are currently in, or a downside break down.  The parameters seem to be quite clearly defined.

sp50020110512

The possible rising wedges in the chart above seem to point June 13, 2011 as a potential turning point for a downside move.  This is just a highly speculative theory of mine for now, but it could work out if we continue to see the sp500 make limited slow and sloppy upside that is contained within one of the rising wedges above.

If the topside boundary is busted however then the wedge formation is in doubt and tends to cancel the near term topping prospects in my opinion.

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2 comments on “Minor Follow Through on the Downside today in the sp500
  1. JR says:

    This not exactly on point but there have been some interesting plays afoot.
    A couple of days ago I took a position in VICL, it moved 20% today! I closed my position out at 4.71, but on closer investigation I think it may be ready to gallop! I will go back in if I can find a good entry point. Possibly as it breaks through 5 and then pulls back just a tad.
    AFFX and MNTA are still a hold!
    VICL is a strong buy!

  2. Tom Tom says:

    Nice picks JR, seems like these biotechs are on fire, maybe I should start paying attention 🙂 5.5 looks like a possible pause point on VICL…

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