It has been quite astonishing how persistent the current rally has been. The recent rally seems almost more extreme than the one that ran into April of 2010. I must admit too also recently that I have had this feeling of “this market never wants to go down” or that a pull back will almost … Read more
Based on the weekly DJIA chart we can see that the DJIA has formed a minor weekly topping tail right at previous key shelf resistance. This should be an important clue that the market is ready for a reversal from this supply area. I think it is still possible we could test the 52 week … Read more
The sp500 today reversed a good portion of the losses today and at first appearance appears to have saved itself from any potential downside damage next week. However the daily MACD is at a bearish crossover point and there exists a triple bearish divergence between the MACD histogram and the sp500 of the past few … Read more
I am re establishing the BOT short signal right now at 1266 on the sp500. There are a number of reasons for this and I will go over them later today. I feel it is worth it to try the short signal again now given how far we are up in the clouds in terms … Read more
The XLF ETF has been showing a good amount of strength recently but has still so far been lagging behind the sp500 in terms of exceeding the April 2010 highs. The XLF returning to the April 2010 highs could be a good guidepost for the next ‘more involved’ stock market correction. If and when the … Read more
It appears as though the sp500 is going to close above the high of Monday of this week today. I see no point in switching back to a long signal at this point and therefore neutral seems more appropriate. My take is that the 1300 range on the sp500 is going to be the next … Read more
ARMH has been the ‘poster child’ stock in terms of momentum and strong persistent trend. ARM holding has benefitted from their low power consumption microprocessors and the booming sales of iphones and other hand held devices. Not to mention their strong order backlog. I recall hearing about another stock with a very strong order back … Read more
Technical analysts like to see clean price action with confirmed volume breakouts and dramatic volume shrinkage on price declines. They also like to see clean reluctant retests and clear tradable voids above. This is what they like to see, but often it can be very hard to spot such perfection. Many times one will see … Read more
There exists a possible buy trigger in the UNG ETF at 6.40 or higher. Natural gas futures have a nice 1 year consolidation pattern on the longer term chart and the recent multi week up move initiated itself after a very convincing looking monthly reversal hammer. I think it is possible that the mega bear … Read more
I am trying the BOT Short Signal as of 1266 on the sp500. In my previous post I talked about the need for some type of bottoming tail on a multitude of time frames. We may start to create that bottoming tail by sometime this week. Caution is advised on the long side for now. … Read more